Statistics Canada’s September estimate has nudged Canada’s canola crop above the 20-million-tonne mark, with all the increase from August tied to stronger expectations in Saskatchewan.
National production is now forecast at 20.028 million tonnes for 2025, up only about 91,000 from the August projection of 19.937 million. The upgrade reflects a higher average national yield of 41.2 bu/acre compared to 41 last month. Harvested area remains steady at about 21.4 million acres.
At the provincial level, Saskatchewan is solely responsible for the upward revision. The province’s canola crop is now pegged at 11.167 million tonnes, modestly higher than August’s estimate of 11.071 million. Yields are expected to reach 40.6 bu/acre, up from 40.3 previously.
In contrast, Alberta and Manitoba estimates were unchanged from August. Alberta’s crop remains forecast at 5.757 million tonnes with yields of 41.5 bu/acre, while Manitoba is steady at 2.949 million tonnes, with yields projected at 43.5 bu/acre.
Today’s StatsCan production estimate reflects conditions as of the end of August, when wetter Prairie weather helped to improve the outlook for most crops. The August report reflected conditions as of the end of July, when parts of Western Canada were still wrestling with drier weather.
While the month-to-month change is slight, the September report points to a notable gain compared to last year’s crop. Nationally, production is expected to rise 4.1% from 2024, supported by stronger yields that more than offset lower harvested area. If realized, the 2025 crop would be the largest since 2018, when Canadian farmers harvested more than 20.7 million tonnes.
Saskatchewan’s canola output is projected to climb 6.8% from 2024, Alberta’s by 2.8%, while Manitoba is seen down 2.2% from a year earlier despite higher yields, due to reduced acreage.
